U.S. Community Solar Q4 Market Update

Executive Summary

• New Jersey’s new rules will allow community solar projects up to 20 MW on designated sites, with registration open for such projects until Dec 31, 2028. More capacity will likely be available for subscription starting next year as developers prioritize larger projects that can realize better economies of scale.
• Illinois has become a strong buyer’s market for community solar subscribers as project availability exceeds current demand in Ameren. CBRE’s recent request for proposals (RFP) attracted more than 500 MW of Ameren capacity available for subscription on behalf of clients. Developers in Ameren now accept sub-investment grade corporate subscribers.
• Capacity values for community batteries in upstate New York are expected to increase. With the state-run residential offtake option no longer meeting target project revenues, developers are now turning to corporate subscribers.
• Developers in mature markets such as Massachusetts, Maine, and Minnesota are looking to fill the gaps left by residential subscribers that exit each year. CBRE’s ‘forward flow’ contracts allow corporate clients to sign short-term community solar subscriptions with projects that need to temporarily cover the lost residential offtake.

New Jersey

New rules will expand the community solar project capacity available in New Jersey

On Sep 9, 2026, New Jersey’s governor signed S3183 to allow up to 20 MW community solar projects on commercial and industrial rooftops, landfills, brownfields, and former mining sites. New Jersey had previously capped all projects at 5 MW.

Developers have until Dec 31, 2028, to register their larger projects. Qualifying sites will have 33 months to reach commercial operation.

New Jersey will require utilities to process all community solar applications on power lines of 34.5 kilovolts (kV) and below. Utilities could previously classify those lines as transmission instead of distribution, which pushed project applications into the federal interconnection queue and disqualified projects from the community solar program.

Key Takeaways New size and grid connection rules can expand community solar capacity available for subscription in New Jersey in 2027. CBRE is evaluating developer pipelines in the state for small commercial subscription opportunities.

Illinois

Developers in Ameren are enrolling sub-investment grade subscribers as supply outstrips demand

Developers in Illinois are actively looking to close new subscriptions for existing projects that secured federal tax credits before the Jul 4, 2026, deadline.

In Ameren territory, where supply materially outstrips demand, developers are now enrolling corporate subscribers with sub-investment grade credit. CBRE’s latest RFP in Ameren attracted more than 500 MW of community solar capacity available for subscription.

As of October, the 2026/27 Illinois Adjustable Block Program (ABP) remains undersubscribed, as developers focus on securing offtake for existing projects. ABP is a state-run incentive mechanism that buys renewable energy credits (RECs) from community solar projects over 15–20 years.

Key Takeaways Developer interest across CBRE’s network in Illinois gives subscribers better terms and opens projects to sub-investment grade corporate entities in Ameren.

New York

Higher VDER credits would open upstate community battery projects to corporate subscribers

New York’s Value of Distributed Energy Resources (VDER) program pays distributed battery project owners through several components, one of which is a Demand Reduction Value (DRV) set by utility marginal costs.

A pending staff proposal before the Public Service Commission (PSC) would materially increase DRV values in upstate New York. Batteries can discharge across the entire DRV window on summer evenings, so owners can capture more of the increase in VDER payments than solar projects.

Community battery project owners in New York have multiple paths to offtake, including the Statewide Solar for All (S-SFA) program. Once the PSC finalizes the higher storage credit values, developers have shared with CBRE that they are eager to contract with investment-grade corporate subscribers.

Key Takeaways With VDER credits set to increase, companies with load in upstate New York will be able to subscribe to battery storage projects starting in 2027.

Forward Flow Opportunities

Residential offtake turnover opens short-term corporate subscription opportunities

Community solar projects in mature markets lose residential subscribers every year. Some projects are unable to replace subscribers in a timely manner, creating a cash flow shortfall that impairs their ability to service their debt.

Corporate subscribers can step into that shortfall and capture bill savings without a long-term commitment or termination fees, while the developer can resolve its short-term cash flow issues from lost residential offtake.

CBRE structures ‘forward flow’ contracts that fill the gap with a simple, short-term modified subscription agreement with corporate offtakers. Under a forward flow contract, a corporation subscribes up to 10–15% of a community solar project’s expected output.

Capacity for ‘forward flow’ subscription is available in mature community solar markets with large operational fleets, such as Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota, and Illinois.

Key Takeaways CBRE typically subscribes clients up to 85% of their load to community solar, leaving a 15% buffer to account for possible variations in bill credit value and load fluctuations. Clients in a market with flat credit value and with no expected load fluctuations in a calendar year are ideal candidates for a forward flow subscription to receive incremental savings across multiple markets.